Winpdb - A Platform Independent Python Debugger The Normalized Decline of Free Software
Take a look at these two graphs from “Google Insights”. They show an ongoing decline of GPL, GNU and Linux in normalized search volume:
http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=gpl%2Cgnu%2Cebook%2Copen%20source&cmpt=q
http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=linux%2Cpc%2Candroid&cmpt=q
One possible interpretation is the decline of the desktop and rise of smart phones and digital consumerism, but note the search term PC is stable in the second graph. Another possible interpretation is that GNU/Linux people are the “early adopters” of the Internet and the decline is expected as the Internet reaches more and more people, but nevertheless I don’t like these graphs at all.
I think myself we are on the verge of a boom in the use of GPL software, the people want an option like it but: 1. many don’t know about it, and 2. many that do are intimidated by it, thinking it to technical, something only for advanced computer users. The answer to this is 1. patch together a press campaign to boost its image (think grass roots even), and 2. make a sub sect of software that is geared to not so advanced users, like Ubuntu is trying. I use Ubuntu, but i still wouldn’t set my 65 year old friend with it because they are still not advanced enough, even though they would love some of what it offers. I also wouldn’t set my friend that is 30 something but can barely use windows. I have explored the options with them, and the best i can come up with is let them practice on my computer, and do small teaching to them, still what they really want is hassle free.
I agree with John Fyffe that the lack of “a sub sect of software that is geared to not so advanced users” is really a problem. The people that I work with won’t use linux because of a lack of a good alternative to ms office applications. Specially excel. Allthough I tried, i myself can’t be as productive on openoffice as on excel, which is the program I use most.
I tried putting “excel” and “openoffice” in google insight: http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=excel,openoffice&cmpt=q
I suspect this is also due to the proliferation of free software under other, non-GNU licenses, such as Apache, Firefox and Eclipse.
I do agree with Jan that OO is not nearly as productive as Excel. OO is actually reasonably competitive in features (at least is has all the features I need), but the UI is slow and clunky. A spreadsheet program is one of the core tools for many users, an environment where they work for hours a day, and a lot more needs to be done to speed up OO workflows. (Luckily, it’s free software, so anybody can volunteer to do this.)
Well, Jan Morse, “excel” is an english word.
If I use Linux and it’s doing just what I want, then I will never google the word “linux”. The probability of the search term “linux” says *nothing* about OSS adoption or user satisfaction. Why would I google “linux” anyway? Only if I have a linux-specific problem with something that also runs on Windows. Now comparing that with the term “pc” is even more meaningless since possible search interests involving the word “pc” obviously stem from entirely different pragmatic contexts.
The only thing that prevents me from definitely throwing away MS Windows is MS Excel ™ 2000. I’ve become proficient with it’s loaded with a very useful, although not perfect, documentation. The kind that helped me learn VBA, write macros, functions, userforms and class modules. On the other hand, OOO does not even recognizes named ranges; I cannot write a macro in python. Even wxPython’s documentation is better (wxwidgets.chm is my bed book).
As for Linux, I agree with John Fyffe: I don’t even think in installing Linux in my 17 yo niece’s PC or my 75 yo father’s one. Like many people, they are computer illiterate, glad enough to have MS Windows providing tools usable enough to have them doing things (printing a photo, making a PDF, email) without hassle.
For Microsoft, loosing market share would mean:
1. Competitors’ products can replace Microsoft’s ones (I mean Excel here, but there may be another product)
2. Competitors are free (doesn’t matter if GPL XXX or else)
3. Competitors have engaged a marketing campaign so agressive PC vendors would drop all previous contracts with MS and pre-install some Linux instead of MS OS
4. As a consequence of the previous point, a Linux distro has been designed such that my 5 yo daughter can make use of it without RTFM, and is not obliged to type stuff like “this -i:O /s /Px -z:W x -e:256 -mod:43 | that -r -f:blabla -O -ab -pGjkL -ouf ./../../../.. ~”
5. Competitors should hire non-programmer people as project managers in charge of software development
Except #2, none of the above will happen any time soon.